THE ERRATA
The Errata No. 6
What They Got Wrong on Monday, September 29th, 2026, and What They Will Get Wrong on a Day of Seven Fed Speakers
Monday, September 28, 2026 · After the close · No. 6 · Seven Fed speakers
Monday was the session where the ten-year Treasury yield closed at a nineteen-year high, Brent was quoted on two contracts a dozen dollars apart, and gold fell by four different amounts. The press got most of it right—except for three things.
Wrong today
Three entries for Monday. Each names the outlet, quotes what it printed, states what was true, and says how the gap surfaced.
1. Monday's changes beside the evening's contract levels; the form No. 5 named, and the same pairing the Tuesday Brief logged as entry 153 at 7:23 a.m. Trading Economics' United States index page, read at about 8:25 p.m., showed the S&P 500 at 7,684.50 beside a change of −59.72, −0.77 percent, and the Dow at 51,495.70 beside −347.11, −0.67 percent, both dated 28 September. The changes are Monday's cash session to the cent: the S&P 500 closed at 7,683.69, down 59.72, and the Dow at 51,481.51, down 347.11, on Yahoo Finance's board at 4:03 p.m. and TheStreet's closing table at 4:19 p.m. The levels are the evening's futures. Level less change should give Friday's close; 7,684.50 plus 59.72 is 7,744.22 against 7,743.41, and 51,495.70 plus 347.11 is 51,842.81 against 51,828.62, a base no feed carried. The Tuesday Brief read the same page at 7:23 a.m., with Tuesday's contracts showing the same changes, and logged it as the eleventh time in thirteen sessions; the evening read is recorded under that number, is not counted twice, and is caught by subtracting.
2. Brent at $108.50 in the morning and "settled near $98" at four o'clock, on one page, with no contract named. TheStreet's live blog carried, at 6:48 a.m., "West Texas Intermediate crude surged 4.22% to $96.31 per barrel, while Brent crude jumped 4.02% to $108.50 per barrel"; at 10:59 a.m., "Brent crude oil jumping back towards $110/bbl"; and at 4:00 p.m., "Brent crude jumped settled near $98." Reading down the page, Brent fell ten dollars in a session in which it rose. The morning figure is the November contract: $108.50 up 4.02 percent implies a Friday base of $104.31, and Trading Economics' Brent, $105.65 at 8:29 p.m. beside WTI at $92.93, carries a Friday base of $104.32 from its own change of +1.33. That contract was up 1.27 percent at 8:29 p.m. and settled at $105.28, beside WTI's November at $92.60, per DTN and Investrade as read by the Tuesday Brief. The $98 is the December contract, the one Yahoo Finance's board quotes, also up the day; November expires Wednesday, and the feeds roll at different times. Two contracts, neither named, and a phantom collapse between them. Caught by the house rule that oil never travels alone, and by dividing.
3. A search for Monday's session returned the first week of September. Yahoo Finance's live blogs headlined "Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq drop as oil tops $95, bond yields rise" and "Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq edge higher as bond yields pause climb" surfaced for Monday's coverage, reading as this week's. They are dated 1 and 2 September, four weeks old: the same story, Iran, oil and yields, with the ten-year at 4.79 percent, "highest intraday level since January 2025," and WTI's October contract at $100.05. Monday's ten-year closed at 5.234 on Kiplinger, a nineteen-year high, and the front-month WTI is November. Correctly dated at source; nothing where they surfaced said so—caught by the yield against the session.
Two things the desk read and did not log, because each is a difference and not an error. Kiplinger's Friday close story put the ten-year at 5.156 percent, down 0.6 basis points, which implies a Thursday close of 5.162; its own Thursday story had 5.206 at 4:12 p.m., and the Treasury's par curve closed Thursday at 5.18. No feed carried 5.162. But Kiplinger's changes track the Treasury's afternoon closes, which fell one basis point from Thursday to Friday, while its levels are quoted an hour later. A quote differing from a settlement is a difference. It is scored below as Form No. 5. And gold: Yahoo Finance's board at 4:03 p.m. showed $4,155.40, down $13.00, on a day TheStreet had gold down 3.16 percent at 7:18 a.m., Vistap Global had it down $164.00 to $4,157.20 at 4:48 p.m., and Trading Economics' spot was down $166.99 at 8:29 p.m. The $13 is measured from Monday's 1:30 p.m. settlement, which the board does not show; the $164 from Friday's. Both are true of something. Neither says which.
The forecast, scored
The Errata, No. 5, was made Thursday night for Friday's session: durable goods, the Michigan final, Williams and Hammack. Eight items.
1. PCE reported as Friday's release, or July's actuals quoted as the August consensus. Did not occur. Searched Friday's coverage and the weekend's; every calendar read carries August personal income and outlays on Wednesday, 30 September.
2. The Michigan final compared with August's 51.7 rather than the preliminary 47.8, and reported as a plunge. Did not occur. The final was 48.1. Kiplinger compared it with the preliminary and named August's 51.7 beside it. Advisor Perspectives compared it with August, a 7.0 percent decline, and said so. Breitbart used "plunged" for the short-run business outlook, quoting the survey director.
3. Durable goods reported as a manufacturing collapse on the headline alone, or ex-transport printed as the headline. Did not occur. The Census release reported new orders "virtually unchanged" at $338.6 billion after a July increase revised to 0.9 percent, ex-transport up 0.3 percent vs. 0.6 percent expected. MarketScreener's headline named ex-transport as ex-transport; KPMG said the headline "understates strength"; a syndicated wire said orders "beat expectations."
4. Thursday's changes beside Friday's contract levels on the same data provider's page, a ninth time. Occurred—Trading Economics at 7:28 a.m. Friday, logged by the Friday Brief as entry 145; again Monday morning as entry 149; and again tonight, entry 1.
5. The ten-year's Thursday close as three numbers, with Friday's change measured from any of them. Occurred, in a neighbouring form. Friday's change was measured from none of them: Kiplinger's −0.6 basis points to 5.156 implies 5.162, which no feed printed, and the Treasury's par curve, which the forecast said would settle the base, closed Thursday at 5.18 and Friday at 5.17—reported, not logged, for the reason above.
6. The thirty-year's record given the ten-year's date, or the seven-year auction's "since 1993" attached to a benchmark. Did not occur in what was read. Kiplinger's Friday story said "fresh 52-week highs" and gave no year; the Zacks preview had "levels not seen since 2004," which is right. A search result titled "US 30-Year Yield Hits Highest Since 2007 as Selloff Deepens" surfaced and returned a 404; it could not be dated.
7. A "fourth straight weekly loss" for the Dow printed before Friday's close. Occurred. Quartz: "the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained on course for a fourth consecutive weekly loss." Schaeffer's at 11:59 a.m.: "the blue-chip index remains headed for its fourth-straight weekly loss," in a piece that had the Dow "sporting healthy gains" at that minute. The Dow closed Friday at 51,828.62, up 478.64, against the previous Friday's 51,682.64: up 145.98 points, 0.28 percent, for the week, which Kiplinger printed as "0.3% for the week." Neither outlet repeated the claim after the close in what the desk read, so it is a hit in the register and not an entry.
8. Schwab's 202,000 propagating: last week's claims as 202,000, or "claims fell 5,000" in a recap. Unresolved. One candidate surfaced, MarketReview's "U.S. Jobless Claims Drop to 197,000 as Layoffs Remain Low," and the page could not be fetched; nothing else read carried either figure.
Three occurred, one in a neighbouring form; four did not; one unresolved. Written into the register tonight.
The one number, reconciled
The ten-year Treasury yield was the number of the day. It closed at the highest level since 2007, and every feed said so in its own words. Here are all the values published, in the order observed.
The base. The Treasury's Daily Par Yield Curve closed Friday at 5.17 percent. Kiplinger's Friday story had 5.156; the Vanderbilt Report's Monday preview said it "closed Friday at 5.16%." Three numbers for Friday, before Monday began.
The morning. "Briefly above 5.21%" in the Vanderbilt Report's premarket note. The Zacks preview, syndicated by Yahoo Finance at 2:04 a.m., said Friday's session had "briefly touched 5.23%, marking its highest level since Jun. 15, 2007," correctly labelled as a touch.
The close, sworn in at 5.24 percent. Yahoo Finance's board at 4:03 p.m.: 5.24, up 0.06, "highest since 2007." Vistap Global at 4:48 p.m.: 5.24, up 0.06 percentage points. Two feeds, one number, and the same six-basis-point change, which implies a Friday base of 5.18 and not the Treasury's 5.17 or Kiplinger's 5.156; the desk notes the base and swears in the level.
Not sworn in. Kiplinger: 5.234 percent, up 5.3 basis points, "52-week high," which rounds to 5.23 and sits half a basis point under the two feeds that agree. TheStreet at 4:00 p.m.: "yet another 19-year high at 5.2%," a rounding rather than a reading. Trading Economics' narrative at 8:25 p.m.: "The 10-year yield reached a 19-year high," with no level in the sentence.
Posted since. The Treasury's par curve for Monday was not on the department's page at 8:33 p.m. The Tuesday Brief's fact-check read it after the open: 5.24, with the two-year at 4.92. The sworn figure holds on three feeds.
So: the ten-year closed at 5.24 on two feeds and 5.234 on a third, five or six basis points above Friday, clearing Friday's touch of 5.23 by a basis point or less. The 2007 comparison is right on every feed. The thirty-year closed at 5.551 on Kiplinger and 5.56 on Yahoo Finance, the highest since 2004; the two-year at 4.931 and 4.93, up seven or eight basis points. The curve moved up together.
The equity indexes reconcile cleanly: S&P 500 at 7,683.69, down 59.72; Dow at 51,481.51, down 347.11; Nasdaq Composite at 26,820.38, down 248.34, on Yahoo Finance's board and TheStreet's closing table, with Kiplinger agreeing. Oil, as a pair from one feed at one minute: Brent $105.65, up 1.27 percent, beside WTI $92.93, up 0.57, on Trading Economics at 8:29 p.m., both November; the settlements, $105.28 and $92.60, per DTN and Investrade.
Wrong tomorrow
Tuesday has job openings and the Conference Board at 10:00, Case-Shiller and the FHFA at 9:00, and seven Federal Reserve speakers: Bowman at 11:00, Barr at 12:40, Goolsbee at 1:00, Cook at 1:25, Musalem at 1:30, Williams at 2:00 and Waller at 3:00 on the Board's calendar, per the Tuesday Brief's fact-check; Investing.com listed five, each an hour early. CarMax reports before the open; AAR, Concentrix and FedEx Freight after. Brent's November contract expires Wednesday, which is also the end of the month and the quarter—eight things to expect.
1. Two consumer confidences treated as one. The Conference Board's September index is expected to rise to 90.1 from 89.4. Michigan's final was 48.1 on Friday, below the first percentile of its own history: different scales, different surveys. Expect at least one piece to put "consumer confidence" at a record low on Tuesday using Friday's Michigan number, or to call a Conference Board reading near 90 a "rebound" from 48.
2. Job openings measured from July's unrevised figure. Consensus for August is 7.23 million from 7.271. July is revised in the same release. Expect "openings fell to 7.2 million from 7.27" with the revision ignored, and expect the July report to surface for Tuesday's query as this month's, as Investing.com's 25 August preview did for a September calendar last week (entry 128).
3. A Fed speaker's line given to the wrong speaker, or last week's line re-dated—seven speakers in one day. Williams said on Thursday that "another rate hike may be appropriate by the end of the year"; expect that sentence attributed to Tuesday, and expect one of the seven quoted as putting the fed funds rate at "4%" when the range is 3.75 to 4.00.
4. Brent's roll printed as a fall. November Brent settled near $105.65 on Monday and December near $98. Feeds that roll to December on Tuesday or Wednesday will show a seven-dollar drop that no barrel experienced. Expect "Brent tumbles" on one board with WTI on the same board moving a dollar. The test is whether the piece names the contract.
5. Monday's changes beside Tuesday's contract levels on the same data provider's page, into the afternoon. The Tuesday Brief found it there at 7:23 a.m. (entry 153); the test is whether it is still there after Tuesday's close. Level less change should equal 7,683.69 and 51,481.51.
6. Gold's Monday fall as four sizes. Down $13, down $164, down $167, down 3.16 percent: every reading is measured from a different base, and Tuesday's recaps will inherit whichever board each writer read. Expect "gold slipped $13" in at least one. The COMEX settlement settles it.
7. The ten-year's Tuesday move measured from three bases. 5.24, 5.234 and the Treasury's Monday par close, which posted overnight at 5.24. Expect Tuesday's change quoted from any of the three, and "closed above 5.25 for the first time" on a touch. And the five-year, which closed above five percent on the Treasury's curve on Thursday at 5.03 and slipped to 4.98 Friday: if it crosses again, expect "first time since 2007" a second time.
8. September's performance printed before September ends. CoinCentral at 3:52 p.m. Monday: the Dow "down 3.2% for September, the index's worst September performance since 2023," with the S&P 500 up 0.3 and the Nasdaq up 2.1. Two sessions remain. The desk could not swear in the 31 August closes tonight; the one board it read from 1 September implies bases that would make the month −1.1, +1.2 and +2.8 percent. Expect the monthly figures repeated Tuesday with different percentages, and the base printed nowhere.
That is the forecast. Tuesday night's Errata scores it against what was actually printed, as reporting, not as a grade.
Sources and data notes
Every figure carries its feed and the minute observed, Eastern. Where feeds disagree, both are printed. The desk's own reads fall between 8:22 and 8:38 p.m.; where a feed stamps its page, that stamp is given.
Monday's close. S&P 500 7,683.69 (−59.72), Dow 51,481.51 (−347.11), Nasdaq Composite 26,820.38 (−248.34), Russell 2000 2,817.91 (−19.64) per Yahoo Finance's live blog, last updated 4:03 p.m., and TheStreet's closing table at 4:19 p.m.; Kiplinger agrees to the point; Vistap Global at 4:48 p.m. carries a Russell 2000 of 2,819.06. Trading Economics at about 8:25 p.m.: US500 7,684.50 (−59.72), US30 51,495.70 (−347.11), US100 30,291.41 (−1.08%). Friday's closes per the Associated Press and Zacks, as logged in entry 149.
Yields. As given in the reconciliation, with these stamps: Yahoo Finance 4:03 p.m., Vistap 4:48 p.m., TheStreet 4:00 p.m., Zacks 2:04 a.m., Kiplinger's Monday story read 8:32 p.m. The Treasury's Daily Par Yield Curve, read 8:33 p.m.: Thursday two-year 4.87, five-year 5.03, ten-year 5.18, thirty-year 5.47; Friday 4.81, 4.98, 5.17, 5.49; no Monday row. Kiplinger's Friday story, 4:11 p.m.: two-year 4.847 (−4.8 bp), ten-year 5.156 (−0.6), thirty-year 5.485 (+2.3); its Thursday story, 4:12 p.m.: ten-year 5.206 (+9.2), thirty-year 5.489.
Oil and gold. Brent $105.649 (+1.329, +1.27%) beside WTI $92.934 (+0.524, +0.57%) per Trading Economics at 8:29 p.m.; TheStreet's three Brent readings as quoted in entry 2; Yahoo's board at 4:03 p.m.: WTI November $93.27 (+0.67), Brent about $98; Kiplinger: WTI $93.16 (+0.8%). Gold's four readings as given above, with Trading Economics' spot at $4,118.01.
Friday's documents. Durable goods per the Census Bureau's advance report, read 8:31 p.m.; MarketScreener, KPMG and the syndicated wire per search at 8:28 p.m.; Michigan's final per Trading Economics' note of 25 September, Advisor Perspectives at 2:19 p.m. Friday, Breitbart at 10:55 a.m. Friday, and Kiplinger. The Dow's week: Quartz and Schaeffer's 11:59 a.m. note, read 8:31 p.m. Monday's Dallas Fed survey, read 8:31 p.m.: production 29.5 from 16.1, general business activity 9.8 from 11.6, company outlook 8.7 from 19.2.
Tuesday. The data calendar per Investing.com's note, read 8:24 p.m.; the speakers and their times per the Board's calendar and Newsquawk as read by the Tuesday Brief between 9:40 and 10:05 a.m.; earnings per Kiplinger's weekly calendar; Williams's Thursday remark per Kiplinger's Thursday story. CoinCentral read 8:35 p.m. The 1 and 2 September Yahoo blogs read 8:37 and 8:38 p.m.; the 1 September board showed the S&P 500 at 7,656.98 (+65.28), the Dow at 52,573.29 (+509.19) and the Nasdaq at 26,333.04 (+251.31).
This desk's arithmetic. Entry 1: 7,684.50 + 59.72 = 7,744.22 against 7,743.41; 51,495.70 + 347.11 = 51,842.81 against 51,828.62. Entry 2: 108.50 ÷ 1.0402 = 104.31; 105.649 − 1.329 = 104.32. The Dow's week: 51,828.62 − 51,682.64 = 145.98, or 0.282 percent. Kiplinger's Friday ten-year: 5.156 + 0.006 = 5.162. Gold's bases: 4,155.40 + 13.00 = 4,168.40; 4,157.20 + 164.00 = 4,321.20; 4,184.50 ÷ 0.9684 = 4,321.05. Item 8's bases: the 1 September board's levels less its changes. Inputs printed.
The chronicle. 151 when this issue was drafted Monday evening; 152 by Tuesday morning, after the Brief's entry 153, which is the same page as entry 1 above; 154 after this issue's two additions, entries 154 and 155.
The Decoy Chronicle — every entry, dated and sourced — is published as a standing register and updated with each issue.
The TrendyVest Championship is open for registration at Tournament.Trendyvest.com — 500 seats, a $100,000 simulated stake, free to enter. Trading begins October 1 at the market open.
TrendyVest is an independent research practice. This is analysis and editorial opinion, not investment advice, and nothing here recommends that any particular person buy or sell any security. Figures identified as this desk's arithmetic are the practice's own, and the inputs are printed alongside them.