Recorded updates

2026-09-27

Removed the unsupported claim that the quoted magnitude was right. The supplied level of 157.871 and increase of 1.2965 imply a prior level of 156.5745 and approximately 0.828 percent, not 1.22 percent. This arithmetic does not independently establish the observed market move.

The Decoy Chronicle · Entry 111

Prior assessment for entry 111

A rising dollar-yen is a weaker yen. The pair rose after the Bank of Japan's increase to 1.25 percent; Invezz had the yen weakening toward 157 at 1:28 a.m. The magnitude was right and the direction was inverted.

2026-09-27

Corrected the equation: 52,064 + 316 = 52,380. Dividing 316 by 0.0060 yields approximately 52,666.67, not 52,380. A displayed percentage may be rounded and does not reconstruct an exact prior close.

The Decoy Chronicle · Entry 115

Prior assessment for entry 115

A quote equal to its own previous close cannot carry a change of 316 points; 316 ÷ 0.0060 implies a base near 52,380, which the page does not show. The range contains neither Wednesday's close of 51,461.90 nor Thursday's of 51,778.04 (Google Finance; +316 points also per Trading Economics). The same page carried Wednesday's close correctly at 4:11 p.m. and an older session eleven minutes later.

2026-09-27

Removed the invalid assertion that identical benchmark prices with unequal percentage changes cannot both be correct. A Monday comparison does not establish Friday settlements. The entry is retained with source verification pending; no contemporaneous same-contract settlement evidence or new outcome has been supplied.

The Decoy Chronicle · Entry 118

Prior assessment for entry 118

Brent trades above WTI, and did all week: this morning the pair was $101.91 against $98.54, a spread of $3.37 on one page at one minute (Trading Economics, 6:40 a.m.). Identical levels with unequal percentage changes cannot both be right in any case, and $100.70 is also the same table's Thursday WTI level.

Supplied Decoy Chronicle correction history

Historical explanations are preserved as supplied. Dates mentioned within them are not new publication dates.

The count was published as 94 on 15 September. It is 92. The revised edition of that evening's recap re-counted two entries already logged in its first edition. Tracing the increments: 68 at the start, 79 after the Midday of 14 September, 85 after the Closing Edge, 89 and then 90 across the two editions of the 15 September Brief, 92 after the Recap, 96 after the first Errata. A register that logs other people's arithmetic has to survive its own.

16 September. Entry 94 is withdrawn: a headline giving the day's high beside a table giving the current level is not a contradiction, and Tuesday's intraday peak was 5.04 percent on three feeds, not the 5.02 this desk swore in. The count falls to 95, rises to 96 with entry 97, to 97 with entry 98 at midday, to 98 with entry 99 after the Fed Day piece's fact-check, and to 99 with entry 100 in the Closing Edge. The withdrawn entry stays on the page, numbered and marked, and is not counted.

16 September, evening. The Errata, No. 1, said the Summary of Economic Projections publishes nineteen individual projections. It publishes eighteen: there are nineteen participants and Chair Warsh does not submit one, as he said in June. The forecast built on that count (item 8 of No. 1) is scored on its other two forms. Corrected at full size at the top of No. 2. The count rises from 99 to 104 with entries 101 to 105.

18 September, midday. The Whisper, No. 2, was written against a count of 111, read from this page before the day's later entries were posted, and its sources section carries that figure. The page is right and the issue is behind it: the count stood at 115 when No. 2 went out and rises to 116 with entry 117 below. The issue was corrected before delivery; the discrepancy is recorded here because the register is the authority on its own arithmetic.

17 September. The Whisper, No. 1, said this register stood at 104. It stood at 106: the morning's Brief had logged entries 106 and 107 before The Whisper was written, and the desk carried a stale count into print. Corrected at full size at the top of the Closing Edge, which was built after Thursday's close and published on Friday, after the Friday Brief had added entries 108 to 112; its four entries are therefore numbered 113 to 116 and the count rises from 111 to 115.

22 September, morning. The Errata, No. 3, is Monday's issue and was delivered Tuesday morning: the scheduled Monday-evening run stalled after reading the runbook and resumed at 9:21 a.m. Tuesday, so its observations are stamped Tuesday between 9:21 and 9:57 a.m. It was drafted against a count of 120; the Tuesday Brief logged entries 122 and 123 while it was being built, and its first entry is the same page as entry 122, so it adds six, not seven. The page is right: the count stood at 122 when No. 3 went to press and rises to 128 with entries 124 to 129. No Errata ran on Thursday 17 or Friday 18 September; No. 2's forecast is scored in No. 3, four days late.

22 September, evening. The Errata, No. 3, said Tuesday's two-year auction was $78 billion. It was $69 billion, the same size as every two-year auction this year, per investingLive, Newsquawk and Helious. The figure sat in the forecast register (item 3 of No. 3) and in entry 128; both are corrected in place and the correction runs at full size at the top of No. 4. Separately, No. 3 printed November WTI's Monday settlement at $92.47 from Reuters; Tuesday's changes on Yahoo Finance and Avalon Capital both imply $92.37, and the ten cents is left unresolved until the exchange settlement can be read. No. 4 was delivered late: its run stalled between reads, and its observations are stamped to windows between 7:22 and 9:05 p.m. rather than to minutes. The count rises from 128 to 133 with entries 130 to 134.

23 September, morning. The Brief logged entries 135 and 136 and the count rises from 133 to 135. The Brief also notes that the flash PMI figures printed as consensus in No. 4's forecast (manufacturing 53.9, composite 56) are the August priors on Trading Economics; Investing.com's consensus is 53.6 for manufacturing and 55.8 for services, with none for the composite. Recorded here for tonight's scoring.

24 September, morning. The Brief logged entries 137 to 139 and the count rises from 135 to 138. The Brief was delivered after its 8:15 a.m. target; its observations are stamped between 8:58 and 9:05 a.m. rather than to the earlier window. A second edition, fact-checked between 9:10 and 9:20 a.m., corrects three of the desk's own errors at full size: August new home sales and the Kansas City Fed survey were printed with their Trading Economics priors (607,000 and 10) as consensus, the same failure logged against The Errata, No. 4; Muse was said to have been unveiled at Meta's Connect conference with no fee disclosed, when it was announced on 8 September and carries $20 and $100 monthly tiers, the transaction fee being what is undisclosed; and McDonald's fall was attributed to remarks on traffic without the $8.5 billion franchisee plan the market was pricing. The count is unchanged at 138.

24 September, evening. The Errata, No. 5, scores No. 4 a day late: no Errata ran on Wednesday 23 September. No. 4’s forecast item 3 carried the August flash PMI readings (53.9, 56) as consensus, as the Wednesday Brief recorded above; corrected at full size at the top of No. 5. No. 5 was delivered after its 8:15 p.m. target, with observations stamped between 8:21 and 8:25 p.m. The count rises from 138 to 143 with entries 140 to 144. A fact-check after delivery found that No. 5 had read a Yahoo Finance update's UTC page stamp as Eastern and printed 2:27 p.m. for 10:27 a.m.; corrected in entries 143 and 144, in the issue's second edition, its figure and its thread. The finding is unchanged.

25 September, morning. The Brief logged entries 145 to 147 and the count rises from 143 to 146. The Brief was delivered after its 8:15 a.m. target: the run stalled between reads, its observations are stamped between 7:20 and 7:40 a.m., and the 8:30 durable goods release is previewed in it, not reported.

25 September, midday. The Whisper, No. 8, adds entry 148 and the count rises from 146 to 147. The issue was delivered after its 12:30 p.m. slot, with observations stamped between 11:10 a.m. and 12:20 p.m. Its entry is a headline that restates its own body as a different quantity, which is the failure mode of entries 108 and 143 in a new setting: a forecast threshold published as a forecast.

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