RUM forecasts lower Q4 sales after Quake AI lifts revenue
Quake AI supplied most of RUM Group’s third-quarter revenue. Its fourth-quarter forecast puts the focus on growth after the acquisition changed the business.
RUM Group expects fourth-quarter revenue of $88 million to $94 million, below its third-quarter result of $96.6 million. The AI infrastructure and video company’s forecast points to a sequential slowdown immediately after an acquisition transformed its revenue base.
In its November 11 earnings release, RUM reported a 290% year-over-year sales increase. Quake AI contributed $68.2 million in its first full quarter following the June 17 Northern Data acquisition. That was more than 70% of group revenue. Rumble, the video business, also increased revenue.
The acquisition changes what the growth rate can tell readers. Comparing the combined company with the smaller business a year earlier captures the new operations entering the accounts. It cannot, by itself, establish how fast the enlarged business is growing on a comparable basis. The next-quarter outlook offers a nearer-term test of that larger revenue base.
A forecast below the new quarterly base
| Revenue measure | US dollars |
|---|---|
| Third-quarter actual | $96.6 million |
| Fourth-quarter company forecast | $88 million–$94 million |
| Forecast midpoint, calculated | $91 million |
The midpoint is about 5.8% below the September quarter’s unrounded revenue, by TrendyVest’s calculation. Both ends of the forecast range are lower. These are expectations, not results, and the comparison does not establish what is causing the projected decline.
Management also said some of the previously disclosed 250 megawatts of unmonetized capacity targeted for 2027 may move beyond that year because of market conditions. The release does not quantify the portion or connect it to the fourth-quarter revenue forecast. Treating the two disclosures as one explanation would go further than the evidence.
Positive adjusted EBITDA comes with a substantial net loss
RUM reported $4.4 million of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, alongside an $89.9 million consolidated net loss under US accounting rules. Its reconciliation adds back $85.2 million of depreciation and amortization, plus other adjustments.
The adjusted result can help examine performance before specified charges. It does not measure the cash left after equipment investment or establish the long-term cost of maintaining an AI fleet. Equally, depreciation and amortization cannot simply be treated as a current cash bill. Determining future equipment spending requires more detail about the assets and their use.
RUM now has a much larger AI business to operate. The important question is whether that scale produces sustained revenue and returns after the costs of running and renewing the infrastructure. Its first full quarter establishes the size of the acquired contribution. The lower fourth-quarter sales outlook makes the pace of growth from here the more immediate issue.
Source notes: Figures come from RUM Group’s November 11, 2026 release and unaudited tables for the three months ended September 30. Amounts are US dollars. RUM Group trades on Nasdaq as RUM. The forecast is management’s outlook; the midpoint comparison is TrendyVest’s arithmetic. No consensus comparison or stock-price reaction is asserted.