By Lily Caruso · Thursday, September 10, 2026 · filed 10:15 AM ET; fact-checked and revised 10:20 AM ET — TrendyVest. Not investment advice. TrendyVest and its writers may own securities discussed here.
Every level is a stamp with its time and feed, and where I have two feeds I say so.** --- Taiwan Semiconductor said this morning that August revenue was NT$514.8 billion — about $16.3 billion — up 53.3 percent from a year ago and 10.1 percent from July, a record for any month in the company's history. Its American shares were down 2.3 percent at 10:07. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF was down 2.7 percent at 9:57.
Intel was down 5.8 percent at 9:53. Micron was $988.88 at 9:51 on stockanalysis and $987.77 at 10:08 on Google Finance, down about 3.9 percent either way — back under the $1,000 it held by 26 cents on Tuesday and cleared by $27 on Wednesday. Nvidia was down 2.6.
I want to start there, because the reflex is to go looking for a chip headline, and there isn't one. Intel's only release this week is Monday's High-NA milestone with ASML. Micron's news this morning is good news: Reuters reports that Huawei and Cambricon have raised AI-accelerator prices 20 to 50 percent because they can't get high-bandwidth memory, which is a pricing-power story for the three companies that make it.
TSMC's number is the best number in the industry. And the group sold off anyway. So the reason is somewhere else, and this morning the somewhere else is the bond market — which is a feed problem before it's a story, so let me do the feed problem first.
Wednesday's close, per Reuters: the 10-year at 4.835 percent, after touching 4.8568, the highest since November 2023. Before this morning's data it was 4.856 on Investrade's stamp and 4.87 on ZeroHedge's at 8:15, with the 30-year at 5.29. Then the PPI printed 5.4 percent on the year against 5.3 expected, with the narrower core soft at 0.2 on the month.
Trading Economics' page, which showed 4.79 an hour after the data — a number this desk flagged as an outlier — now shows **4.93, up nine basis points**. I can't get a second feed on that level, and I won't print it as fact. What I can print is the direction, on two feeds: the long-bond ETF was $80.95 in the premarket at 9:19, down 0.95 percent, and the S&P ETF was $757.05 at 9:58, down 0.7.
Yields went up after the report, not down. And the longest-duration equities — chips at 30 and 40 times, software, Oracle with an 11 percent move priced into tonight — went down with the bonds. If 4.93 holds, it's within six basis points of the 2023 high near 4.99, which was itself the highest since 2007.
LPL's Lawrence Gillum, in Reuters' Wednesday wrap: "The inflationary story is getting a little stickier, and that could cause the Fed to hike rates." That's the morning. TSMC's record is real, and the tape doesn't care today, because the discount rate moved more than the earnings did. **THE FIRST ROOM: THE CHIPS SOLD OFF ON THE BEST NEWS THEY'VE HAD ALL WEEK.** Here's what's in the room. TSMC's August: NT$514.8 billion, up 53.3 percent; January through August, NT$3.39 trillion, up 39.3 percent; and, per Investrade's account, a company "struggling to meet AI infrastructure demand." Reuters' exclusive on China: Huawei's Ascend 950DT above 250,000 yuan, 20 to 50 percent higher than two months ago; the 910C to 110,000-plus from about 90,000; Cambricon's next chip repriced 20 to 30 percent higher; the cause, per three people who'd know, a worldwide HBM shortage that has Chinese buyers paying "several times what buyers outside China pay" through grey channels.
Wednesday's Intel close at $106.24, up 18 percent on the week by 24/7 Wall St.'s count. None of that is bad for the group. And the group is down 3 percent.
My colleague wrote at 9:20 that the PPI was one molecule — diesel up 24 percent in a month, a third of the goods increase by itself, services up 0.1 — and that the report was hot on its first digit and soft on its third. The bond market, on the evidence of the long-bond ETF, traded the first digit. When the 10-year goes from 4.86 toward 4.9 in a morning, the stocks that get hit first are the ones whose value sits furthest out, and no group's value sits further out than semiconductors priced on 2028 capacity.
Intel, which ran 18 percent in a week on a price-increase report and a High-NA milestone, gave six of it back in twenty-three minutes. Micron, which the crowd bought through $1,000 on Wednesday because Apple's price list meant more memory dollars, is $11 under the line again. This isn't a verdict on the chips.
It's a verdict on the rate. But my colleague's Friday row — *Micron above $1,000 on Friday's close* — now needs $11 in two sessions, and his *Intel above $100 on Friday* had ten cents of room at the 9:53 stamp. The rows that looked settled on Wednesday are live again, and what made them live is a producer-price report about diesel. **THE SECOND ROOM: ORACLE IS DOWN 3 PERCENT INTO THE PRINT, AND THE PRINT IS TONIGHT.** Oracle was $157.23 at 10:04, down 2.72 percent, after closing at $161.63 Wednesday and $162.52 Tuesday.
Tonight at 4:05 it reports the first quarter, and eight of my rows from Tuesday's deep dive settle on it. Here's the short version of what has to show up. Revenue around $19.14 billion, against a guide of 27 to 29 percent growth.
Cloud revenue growing 58 to 64 percent. Earnings of $1.72 to $1.76. And the number that matters, OCI: the desk's arithmetic from the guide puts it at $7.1 to $7.5 billion, against $5.8 billion last quarter.
RPO was $638 billion at the end of May, $75 billion of it prepaid; the crowd will want it higher, and the question is by how much and from whom. Free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion last fiscal year against $55.7 billion of capex; this year's gross capex guide is $90 to $95 billion, about $40 billion of it financed, $20 billion of that through at-the-market stock. The options market has an 11 percent move priced.
Down 3 percent into it, on a morning when everything with duration is down, is not a signal about Oracle — it's the same rate story wearing a different ticker. What would be a signal: a gigawatt number. Management said in June that delivery would "approach" a gigawatt this quarter.
If Clay Magouyrk says a gigawatt was delivered, the OCI number takes care of itself. If he says it's coming, then the RPO grew and the revenue didn't, and that's the quarter the bears have been waiting for. I grade eight rows either way, tonight, in the same font. **THE THIRD ROOM: A MYELOMA CELL THERAPY CLEARED THE BAR, AND NOBODY WAS LOOKING BECAUSE OF NOVARTIS.** Bristol Myers said this week — the release is dated September 8, per BioPharm International; BioSpace covered it on the 9th — that arlocabtagene autoleucel, arlo-cel, a CAR T-cell therapy aimed at a target called GPRC5D, met its primary endpoint in the registrational Phase 2 QUINTESSENTIAL trial.
The patients are the hardest ones in myeloma: quadruple-class exposed, four or more prior lines, already through the BCMA-directed therapies that are the current last resort. The company says overall and complete response rates improved significantly and will show the numbers at a medical meeting. It didn't print them, and I'll say so: a release that says "met" without the figure is a release you grade when the figure arrives.
Lynelle Hoch, who runs Bristol's cell-therapy business: the results "support arlo-cel's potential benefit for patients while showing a safety profile consistent with expectations." No filing timeline yet. BMO called it a "key derisking event" and made the commercial point that matters — arlo-cel is aimed at patients who've failed the BCMA drugs, so it doesn't run straight into Gilead's anito-cel, which has a December 23 FDA date in an earlier line. Bristol was $65.00 in the premarket at 9:24, up 0.9 percent, on a morning when biotech was down 1.4.
In a week when the FDA got permanent leaders and the sector's response was to sell it with the 10-year, this is the kind of news that gets buried and shouldn't be: a new target, a registrational win, a population with nothing left. It's small until it isn't. The rest of the biotech news is the kind that makes the sector trade with rates — failures and holds.
Biohaven disclosed this morning that the FDA placed a partial clinical hold on its BHV-7000 epilepsy program on September 4: new enrollment paused in the 302 study and the open-label extension after rodent studies left, in the FDA's words as Reuters carried them, "insufficient information to assess the potential human risk from a metabolite." The pivotal 303 study is fully enrolled. The 600-plus patients already assigned keep getting the drug, more than 1,200 people have taken it, the company still guides to topline data in the second half of this year, says the finding "could be specific to rodents," and will send more animal data "in the coming weeks." The stock was down more than 13 percent in the premarket, per Reuters. That's a hold that could clear in a month or could end the program, and the difference is a metabolite nobody outside the company has seen.
Novo Nordisk, on Monday, stopped two more Phase 3 trials of ziltivekimab — HERMES and ATHENA, both in heart failure with preserved or mildly reduced ejection fraction — after an interim look said they were unlikely to succeed, per Endpoints, which broke it, and pharmaphorum. That follows the ZEUS failure in cardiovascular disease this summer — July by Endpoints' account, August by pharmaphorum's, and I'm printing both. One trial survives, ARTEMIS, in heart attack patients, with results in 2027.
Ziltivekimab is the drug Novo bought Corvidia for, $725 million, in 2020. And Novartis has now had two Phase 3 failures this week: the cardiovascular program on Friday and the muscular dystrophy program on Tuesday, both printed here as they happened. XBI was $157.16 at 9:52, down 1.4 percent.
The FDA's Michael Davis and Karim Mikhail were made permanent on Tuesday, which RBC called "a sign of continuity and stability." Continuity got a day. Then the 10-year took it back. **THE FOURTH ROOM: APPLE, THE MORNING AFTER, IS UP.** Apple was $318.12 at 9:53 on Google Finance and $319.64 at 10:06 on stockanalysis — up 0.9 and 1.4 percent — above Wednesday's $315.34 close and above Tuesday's $316.22 pre-event close. The June precedent I wrote about yesterday morning — a memory-driven price increase followed by the stock's worst day in a year — did not repeat.
Apple priced the 18 Pro at $1,199 and the Pro Max at $1,299, a hundred dollars more than last year, with carrier credits of up to $1,200 alongside, and the foldable Duo at $1,999. The crowd's second verdict, this morning, is that a company that raises its price and its subsidy in the same sentence knows what it's doing. My Sunday row — the 18 Pro at or above $1,199 — settled as a WIN on the newsroom page.
My colleague's foldable-above-$2,099 row lost on the same page, at the falsifier's exact number, and he printed it that way. Pre-orders open Saturday at 8 a.m. Eastern; Duo pre-orders are October 16.
The green stock in a red tech tape this morning is the one that shipped a price list. Remember that the next time someone tells you the market punishes price increases. **THE REST OF THE OPEN.** Meta was $645.23 at 10:07, down 1.3 percent, despite a JPMorgan upgrade this morning per ZeroHedge, and a day after Semafor reported that Andrew Tulloch — the researcher whose disputed $1.5 billion package became the symbol of the talent bubble — left the company once Muse shipped. Adobe was $251.57, down 1.3, ahead of its own print tonight at a consensus of $6.07 to $6.09 depending on the feed.
Navan was down 15 percent premarket despite raising its year. Cooper was down 18 at 8:32 after keeping the division it tried to sell. American Eagle was down 14 in the premarket on a quarter whose beat was a tariff refund.
And the Kospi, whose 7,000 line I graded a win on Wednesday, closed at 7,033.92, down 0.25 percent, per the Korea Times and Trading Economics — and held 7,000 on a day when foreigners sold a net 2.48 trillion won, about $1.85 billion, into quadruple witching. SK hynix closed at 1,853,000 won, down 0.16 percent; Samsung at 269,000, down 0.19; the won at 1,339.2. **TOMORROW, AND THE HOURS BEFORE IT.** Today at 1:00, the $22 billion 30-year auction. At 1:40, the Treasury's $6 billion long-end buyback — the actual operation.
At 4:05, Oracle and Adobe. Around 4:15, the Fed's H.15 with Wednesday's 10-year, and a correction to a number this desk has been carrying: the Fed's table shows Tuesday's 10-year at **4.80 percent**, not the 4.78 the AP printed, so my colleague's row grades against 4.80, and my own — *the 10-year at or above 4.80 on Friday's H.15* — was already at the line on Tuesday, with Reuters' Wednesday close at 4.835 above it. Tomorrow at 8:30, August CPI: consensus 3.4 percent headline, 2.4 or 2.5 core depending on the feed.
After this morning, it's the number that decides whether the long end has found its level or is still looking for one. If the CPI's energy line looks like the PPI's diesel line, the headline prints hot and the bond market has to decide, again, whether to trade the first digit. Kroger before the open.
Michigan sentiment at 10, consensus 51.7. And it's settlement day: Micron above $1,000, Tesla below $376.37, Broadcom above $357.71, Intel above $100, and utilities over financials all grade on Friday's closes, and every one of them moved this morning. **THE ROWS.** *Row one — 60% that Micron closes today below $1,000.* It's $988 on two feeds with the long end selling off and the CPI tomorrow; Wednesday's pattern — falsifier hit, dip bought — needs a bond bid to repeat, and there isn't one this morning. Falsifier: the 30-year auction stops through at 1:00 and the whole duration complex reverses into the close.
Settlement: the Nasdaq official close, two feeds, sworn in tomorrow. *Row two — 55% that Friday's CPI headline prints at or above 3.4 percent year over year.* August's producer diesel line was up 24 percent; the retail gasoline pass-through is slower, but it's in the same month. Falsifier: shelter and services soft enough to offset energy, the way the PPI's services line was. Settlement: the BLS release, all-items index, 12-month change. *Row three — 60% that the VanEck Semiconductor ETF closes Friday below Wednesday's $574.29.* The rate move that did this doesn't reverse in two sessions without a CPI surprise, and the group ran straight into it.
Falsifier: a cool CPI. Settlement: the official close on two feeds. *Standing:* my Brent row settled a WIN on Wednesday's sworn $101.21 settlement. My Kospi row settled a WIN.
My eight Oracle rows grade tonight and tomorrow. The 10-year row grades on Friday's H.15, and the Fed's own table already has Tuesday at 4.80. Episode 33's ECB row was graded a WIN at 8:15 by my colleague: Frankfurt hiked to 2.50, and Lagarde called it "predominantly a supply shock" in the same breath. **TICKERS IN PLAY.** $TSM · $SMH · $INTC · $MU · $NVDA · $ORCL · $ADBE · $AAPL · $META · $BMY · $GILD · $BHVN · $NVO · $NVS · $XBI · $COO · $AEO · $NAVN · $TLT · SK hynix (000660.KS) Markets.
Tech. The Edge. Research with receipts. — Lily Caruso **FACT-CHECK NOTES, PRINTED INSIDE THE COLUMN.** This episode was checked against second sources between the 10:15 filing and the revision.
What changed: *SK hynix.* The first draft had SK hynix up 0.16 percent, from Trading Economics' note. The Korea Times has it down 0.16 percent, closing at 1,853,000 won against Wednesday's 1,856,000 — and the arithmetic agrees with the Korea Times. Corrected, with the foreign-selling figure, the won and the quadruple-witching context added from the same source.
The Kospi close is now on two feeds. *Micron and Apple, second feeds.* Micron's sub-$1,000 print is now on stockanalysis and Google Finance. Apple's morning-after gain is on both feeds too, at two different stamps (up 0.9 at 9:53; up 1.4 at 10:06). Intel's $100.10 remains one live feed; a second was stale. *The 10-year.* Reuters' Wednesday wrap — 4.835 percent at the close, 4.8568 intraday, "highest since November 2023" — is added, with LPL's Gillum quote.
Trading Economics' 4.93 this morning is still on one feed and is still labeled that way; the direction is on two. *Oracle.* The first draft called the implied OCI jump "the largest sequential jump in the company's history." This desk doesn't have the full quarterly series to support that, so it's out. *Bristol Myers.* The first draft said "announced Wednesday." The release is dated September 8 per BioPharm International; BioSpace's account is dated the 9th. Lynelle Hoch's quote, the safety language and the absence of a filing timeline are added from the second source. *Biohaven.* Reuters, via Yahoo Finance, confirms the hold's scope and adds the premarket move (down more than 13 percent), the 1,200-patient exposure figure, the FDA's wording and the company's "could be specific to rodents" line. All added. *Novo.* The first draft called ziltivekimab's heart program "over." One trial, ARTEMIS, continues, with results in 2027; corrected.
The two accounts of when ZEUS failed — July (Endpoints) and August (pharmaphorum) — are both printed. The Corvidia purchase price is from pharmaphorum. *TSMC.* The month-over-month change (+10.1 percent) and the January–August total (NT$3.39 trillion, +39.3 percent) are added from Grafa's account of the filing. *Apple.* "Raised the carrier subsidy to $1,200" became "carrier credits of up to $1,200 alongside." Apple's newsroom gives the credit; it doesn't say it was raised. *Intel.* "The Intel newsroom has nothing dated this week" became "Intel's only release this week is Monday's High-NA milestone." The newsroom index the desk fetched was incomplete. *Adobe.* Consensus printed as $6.07 to $6.09; three feeds carry three numbers. *Held as stated.* The open stamps for SMH, SPY, TSM, ORCL, META, ADBE, XBI and BMY; the PPI figures; the Huawei and Cambricon prices; BMO's comments and Gilead's December 23 date; the Fed's H.15 for September 8; the ECB decision and Lagarde's line; tomorrow's consensus. *This is TrendyVest's analysis and opinion — for informational purposes only, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or commodity. TrendyVest and its writers may own securities discussed here.
Sources: open stamps per stockanalysis.com — SMH $558.54 (9:57), SPY $757.05 (9:58), INTC $100.10 (9:53), MU $988.88 (9:51), NVDA $217.77 (9:52), TSM $425.54 (10:07), ORCL $157.23 (10:04), AAPL $319.64 (10:06), META $645.23 (10:07), ADBE $251.57 (10:06), XBI $157.16 (9:52), BMY $65.00 premarket (9:24), TLT $80.95 premarket (9:19) — with Google Finance as the second feed for MU ($987.77, 10:08) and AAPL ($318.12, 9:53); Wednesday's 10-year close (4.835), intraday high (4.8568), the 30-year and 2-year, and the di Galoma and Gillum quotes per Reuters (Brettell and Carew) via Investing.com, September 9; the morning's 10-year at 4.856 per Investrade, 4.87 and the 30-year at 5.29 per ZeroHedge's 8:15 snapshot, and 4.93 per Trading Economics, unconfirmed; the PPI per the BLS release and InvestingLive; TSMC's August per Grafa's account of the filing, Investrade and CNBC's headline; the Huawei and Cambricon prices per Reuters' exclusive via Yahoo Finance Canada; Intel's weekly gain per 24/7 Wall St.; the Oracle figures per this desk's September 8 deep dive; Bristol Myers' QUINTESSENTIAL results per BioPharm International (September 8) and BioSpace (September 9), BMO's comments per BioSpace; Biohaven per Reuters via Yahoo Finance Canada (7:37 AM) and Investing.com's account of the filing; Novo's HERMES and ATHENA terminations per pharmaphorum and Endpoints; the Novartis failures per this week's Closing and Midday Edges; the FDA appointments and RBC's quote per BioPharma Dive; Apple's prices and carrier credits per Apple's newsroom; Meta's upgrade and the Navan, Cooper and American Eagle premarket moves per ZeroHedge and TheStreet; Tulloch per Semafor; the Kospi close, SK hynix, Samsung, flows and the won per the Korea Times (4:19 PM KST) and Trading Economics; the Fed's H.15 for September 8 per federalreserve.gov; the ECB per Euronews and FXStreet; tomorrow's consensus per Investrade and Trading Economics' calendar; Adobe's consensus per StockMarketWatch, Alphastreet and this desk's canon. Where feeds disagree, both are printed. Do your own research.*